A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
