Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
